India’s Carbon Emission Growth Slows in 2025

• 17 Nov 2025

Source: TH

Why in News?

India’s carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to rise by only 1.4% in 2025, a sharp slowdown from the 4% increase recorded in 2024, according to the Global Carbon Project (GCP) 2025 study.

• GCP, is an international collaborative program established in 2001 to study and integrate knowledge of the global carbon cycle and human activities affecting it.

What are the Key Findings of the Global Carbon Project 2025 Study?

• India’s Emissions Trends: Emissions are expected to increase from 3.19 billion tonnes in 2024 to 3.22 billion tonnes in 2025.
  • India’s per-capita emissions stand at 2.2 tonnes/year, the second lowest among the 20 largest economies. Coal remains the primary source of India’s CO₂ emissions.
  • India is the third largest emitter of carbon at 3.2 billion tonnes annually (2024), led by the US (4.9 billion tonnes) and China (12 billion tonnes).
  • India’s annual emission growth averaged 6.4% between 2005–2014, but has dropped to 3.6% during 2015–2024, reflecting improvements in carbon intensity and expanding renewable capacity. 
• Global Emission Trends:  Global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels are expected to rise 1.1%, reaching a record 38.1 billion tonnes this year.
  • Global fossil CO₂ emissions in 2025 are rising across all major fuels, with coal up 0.8%, oil up 1%, and natural gas up 1.3%.
  • Despite years of climate action, global emissions have not begun to decline.
  • CO₂ emissions from land-use change (deforestation, degradation) are expected to fall slightly. However total global CO₂ emissions (fossil fuels + land use) are flat at around 42 billion tonnes, similar to 2024.
• Carbon Budget and Climate Risks: The study warns that the carbon budget (the maximum CO₂ we can emit while still keeping warming below 1.5°C) is almost exhausted, with only 170 billion tonnes of CO₂ remaining (about four years of emissions at 2025 levels).
  • Scientists say staying below 1.5°C is no longer realistic at the current pace of emissions, and climate change is already weakening land and ocean carbon sinks, reducing their ability to absorb CO₂.

India’s Emissions Profile

• India’s 4th Biennial Update Report (BUR-4), submitted to the UNFCCC in 2024, recorded a 7.93% fall in total GHG emissions in 2020 compared to 2019.
  • Excluding Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF), India’s emissions were 2,959 million tonnes of CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent, a way to measure the impact of GHG).
  • Including LULUCF, net emissions were 2,437 million tonnes of CO₂e.
  • The energy sector contributed 75.66% of total emissions, while land-related activities sequestered about 522 million tonnes of CO₂, offsetting 22% of national emissions.

What are the Factors Contributing to India’s Slowdown in Carbon Dioxide Emissions?

• Role of Weather Conditions: A strong and early monsoon in 2025 reduced the need for cooling and lowered irrigation demand, easing pressure on power generation and slowing the rise in fossil-fuel emissions.
• Renewable Energy Expansion: Rapid growth in solar and wind power added clean electricity to the grid, reducing reliance on coal and helping keep CO₂ emissions in check.
  • As per International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) RE Statistics 2025, India ranks 4th globally in total renewable capacity, 4th in wind power, and 3rd in solar power, reflecting the scale and speed of its energy transition.
  • Renewables now account for 50.07% of India’s total installed power capacity (484.82 GW), achieving the COP26 non-fossil target five years ahead of schedule. 
    • Non-fossil capacity has risen to 242.8 GW, moving India steadily toward the 500-GW target for 2030.
• Coal Consumption Trends: Coal use grew only marginally in 2025, and India’s power-sector CO₂ emissions fell by 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 due to strong clean-energy additions and lower overall power demand.
  • Lower cooling needs and higher renewable generation helped India avoid the usual spike in coal consumption that typically pushes emissions upward.
• Economic and Structural Factors: Improvements in energy efficiency and cleaner technologies have reduced the carbon intensity of the economy, while a larger economic base naturally slows percentage growth in emissions.

What are India’s Long-Term Low Emission Strategies (LT-LEDS)?

India has devised LT-LEDS to chart a sustainable path forward in addressing “CLIMATE” change. India’s LT-LEDS involves seven key strategic transitions, namely:

• C – Clean Electricity: Low-carbon development of electricity systems aligned with national development needs.
• L – Low-Carbon Transport: Building an integrated, efficient and inclusive low-carbon transport system.
• I – Inclusive Urban Adaptation: Promoting climate-resilient urban design, energy-efficient buildings and sustainable urbanisation.
• M – Manufacturing & Industry Decarbonisation: Decoupling economic growth from emissions through efficient, innovative, low-emission industrial systems.
• A – Atmospheric CO₂ Removal: Scaling CO₂ removal and engineering solutions to tackle hard-to-abate sectors.
• T – Tree & Vegetation Enhancement: Expanding forest and vegetation cover with ecological and socio-economic considerations.
• E – Economic Path to Net-Zero: Strengthening economic and financial frameworks for low-carbon development and the transition to Net-Zero by 2070.

Conclusion

India’s emissions slowdown is encouraging, but rising global emissions and a nearly depleted 1.5°C carbon budget add urgency to COP30 in Belem. Keeping up India’s clean-energy momentum and securing stronger global action will be crucial to limiting future climate risks.

Drishti Mains Question

Q. Discuss how India’s rapid renewable energy expansion is reshaping its emission trajectory and helping meet long-term climate commitments.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. What does the Global Carbon Project report say about India’s emissions in 2025?

India’s fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions are expected to rise only 1.4%, reaching about 3.22 billion tonnes.

2. Why are India’s emissions slowing despite economic growth?

Strong renewable expansion, better energy efficiency, cleaner technologies, and lower cooling demand due to a strong monsoon.

3. How significant is India’s renewable energy capacity?

As of 2025, Renewables form 50.07% of total installed capacity; non-fossil capacity has reached 242.8 GW.

4. Which sector continues to dominate India’s CO₂ emissions?

Coal remains the largest contributor, though power-sector emissions fell by 1% in early 2025 due to high renewable output.

UPSC Civil Services Examination Previous Year Question (PYQ)

Prelims

Q. Consider the following: (2019)

1. Carbon monoxide 
2. Methane 
3. Ozone 
4. Sulphur dioxide 

Which of the above are released into atmosphere due to the burning of crop/biomass residue? 

(a) 1 and 2 only 

(b) 2, 3 and 4 only 

(c) 1 and 4 only 

(d) 1, 2, 3 and 4 

Ans: (d)

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Q. The ‘Common Carbon Metric’, supported by UNEP, has been developed for 

(a) assessing the carbon footprint of building operations around the world  

(b) enabling commercial fanning entities around the world to enter carbon emission trading  

(c) enabling governments to assess the overall carbon footprint caused by their countries  

(d) assessing the overall carbon foot-print caused by the use of fossil fuels by the world in a unit time  

Ans: (a)

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Q. “Momentum for Change: Climate Neutral Now” is an initiative launched by (2018)  

(a) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  

(b) The UNEP Secretariat  

(c) The UNFCCC Secretariat  

(d) The World Meteorological Organisation  

Ans: (c)

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Mains

Q. The adoption of electric vehicles is rapidly growing worldwide. How do electric vehicles contribute to reducing carbon emissions and what are the key benefits they offer compared to traditional combustion engine vehicles? (2023)