Mains Practice Questions

Introduction:

According to the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21), India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 2.0, putting the country effectively below the replacement level (2.1).

• However, this national average masks a sharp "Demographic Divergence": while the southern and western states transitioned to low fertility decades ago, the northern and central states (EAG states) continue to drive population growth.

Body:

Demographic Diversity Across States

• The "Stragglers" (North & Central India): States like Bihar (TFR ~3.0) and Uttar Pradesh (2.4) still have high fertility rates. They possess a massive "youth bulge" and will supply the bulk of India's workforce for the next two decades.
• The "Achievers" (South & West India): States like Kerala (1.8) and Tamil Nadu (1.4) have TFRs comparable to developed European nations.
  • For instance, the southern states’ share of India’s population has declined sharply, falling from 24.8% in 1971 to 19.9% in 2021.
  • These states are rapidly transitioning into "ageing societies" where the dependency ratio of the elderly is rising.

Implications for Governance

• Pressure on Human Development Delivery: High-fertility states face strain on education, healthcare, nutrition, and housing systems.
  • For example, Bihar and UP continue to record higher maternal mortality and lower learning outcomes, as rapid population growth dilutes per-capita public spending. Governance focus here shifts to quantity and access, often at the cost of quality.
• Employment and Skill Mismatch: Youth-heavy states must generate jobs at scale to avoid demographic distress.
  • However, periodic labour surveys show that formal job creation is concentrated in low-fertility states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Gujarat.
  • This mismatch fuels informal employment, migration, and underemployment, challenging local governance capacity.
• Migration Management and Urban Governance: Demographic asymmetry drives large-scale inter-state migration from UP, Bihar, and Odisha to southern and western states.
  • Destination states face pressure on urban infrastructure, housing, transport, and civic services, while migrants often lack access to local welfare due to documentation and language barriers.
• Ageing and Social Sector Governance: Low-fertility states are entering an ageing phase earlier. Kerala already has over 16% population above 60 years, increasing demand for geriatric healthcare, pensions, and long-term care.
  • Governance priorities here shift from expansion to sustainability and productivity enhancement.

Implications for Federal Policy Planning

• Fiscal Federalism and Resource Allocation: Population-based criteria in Finance Commission devolution risk penalising states that achieved early population stabilisation.
  • Southern states argue that higher transfers to fast-growing states reduce incentives for demographic control, raising debates on fairness versus need-based allocation.
• Political Representation and Delimitation: Future parliamentary delimitation based purely on population could significantly increase seats for high-fertility states, altering the federal balance.
  • This has implications for political equity, regional voice, and cooperative federalism, necessitating consensus-driven reforms.
• Labour and Welfare Portability: Federal planning must adapt to a mobile population.
  • Initiatives like One Nation One Ration Card and e-Shram portal reflect attempts to de-link welfare from domicile, but uneven implementation across states limits effectiveness.
• National Development Strategy Alignment: Uniform national policies—whether in health, education, or employment—risk inefficiency in a demographically diverse country.
  • For example, skilling policies must differ between job-scarce youth-heavy states and labour-deficit ageing states, requiring flexible federal frameworks.

Suggested Remedies

• Adopt Differentiated, State-Specific Demographic Strategies: India requires a shift from uniform population control approaches to context-sensitive demographic governance.
  • High-fertility states need a focus on family planning and reproductive health., while low-fertility and ageing states should prioritise active ageing policies, higher labour force participation (especially women and elderly), and managed migration.
• Reform Fiscal Devolution Formulas: Along with population size, criteria such as fertility decline, ageing burden, health outcomes, and migration inflows should be incorporated by Finance Commissions.
  • This would ensure that states which achieved early population stabilisation are not fiscally disadvantaged.
• Strengthen Inter-State Coordination on Migration and Labour Welfare: With rising inter-state labour mobility, governance must move beyond domicile-based frameworks.
  • States should coordinate on portable social security, common skill certification, migrant housing, and urban service delivery.
• Invest in Women's Education: Evidence shows that female education and workforce participation are the strongest determinants of fertility decline.
  • Expanding secondary schooling, reproductive healthcare, nutrition, and safe employment opportunities for women in states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh can accelerate demographic transition.
• Promote Lifelong Skilling in Ageing States: As workforce growth slows in southern and western states, sustaining economic momentum will require higher labour productivity rather than labour quantity.
  • Policies should promote automation, digital technologies, up-skilling of mid-career workers, delayed retirement options, and integration of migrant labour..

Conclusion

India’s population challenge is no longer about “how many” but “where and at what stage”. Managing this demographic diversity demands asymmetric governance, flexible federal policy planning, and cooperative federalism. Recognising population as a region-specific developmental variable—rather than a national aggregate—is essential to convert India’s demographic diversity into a sustainable demographic dividend.