Rising Cyclone Threats and Mangrove Vulnerability

• 26 May 2025

For Prelims: Cyclones, Mangroves, Carbon Storage, Biodiversity, Hadley Cell, Coral Reefs, Wetlands, Sundarban, Aquaculture, Algal Blooms, Great Barrier Reef, Bengal Tigers.  

For Mains: Impact of climate change on cyclones and mangroves and their implications. Suggestions to deal with increased cyclones and degraded mangroves. 

Source: TH 

Why in News? 

A new study revealed that climate change is making cyclones more intense and expanding their reach into previously unaffected regions. 

• It also revealed that half of the world’s mangroves could face severe risks by 2100, threatening coastal protection, carbon storage, and biodiversity. 

Note: Climate change is complex, so experts use Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to understand its effects. Each SSP shows a different future. 

• SSP3 describes a divided world with little focus on the environment. 
• SSP5 shows a world with rapid fossil fuel use and heavy resource depletion. 
• SSP5-8.5 is the SSP5 pathway plus a radiative forcing, the amount of extra energy being added to the planet’s surface. 

What are Key Findings of the Study on Cyclones and Mangroves? 

• Increased Cyclone Intensity and Range: Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (high emissions and fossil fuel use), tropical cyclone belts may shift away from the equator, increasing risks to higher-latitude ecosystems.  
  • East Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, Madagascar, and Oceania face rising cyclone exposure. 
• Shorter Recovery Time for Ecosystems: In resilient ecoregions (historically adapted to cyclones), the recovery time between high-intensity storms could drop from 19 years (1980-2017) to 12 years (2015-2050). 
  • Some ecosystems may shift into irreversible states due to frequent disturbances. 
• Mangroves Under Threat: By 2100, up to 56% of global mangroves could face high to severe risk under SSP5-8.5.  
  • Southeast Asia is especially vulnerable with 52–78% mangroves at risk. 

 

Why is Cyclone Intensity and Range Increasing? 

• Warmer Ocean Temperatures: Cyclones draw energy from warm ocean waters (≥26.5°C), and climate change raises sea surface temperatures, supplying more heat and moisture. 
  • It leads to higher wind speeds (increased intensity), more rapid intensification (storms strengthening quickly), and heavier rainfall (warmer air holds more moisture). 
• Changing Wind Patterns: As global temperatures rise, the Hadley Cell (atmospheric circulation near the equator) expands, pushing storm tracks toward higher latitudes, while changes in wind patterns (e.g., jet streams) shift cyclone paths, exposing regions like Madagascar, East Asia, and parts of the Mediterranean to new risks. 
• Rising Sea Levels: Higher sea levels from melting ice and warming oceans worsen coastal flooding during storms, even without an increase in cyclone frequency. 
• Changes in Atmospheric Stability: Lower wind shear in some regions (e.g., tropics) helps cyclones grow stronger, while higher shear in areas like the Atlantic can weaken storms, causing cyclones to shift to new regions. 
  • Wind shear is the change in wind speed or direction over a short distance in the atmosphere—either horizontally or vertically.        
• Polar Warming: Warming in the polar regions, which is faster than in the tropics, reduces the equator-to-pole temperature gradient, shifting cyclone activity away from the equator.    
• Degraded Ecosystems: Human activity and climate stress have weakened natural buffers like mangroves, coral reefs, and wetlands, which protect against storm surge, absorb wave energy, and aid recovery.  
  • Losing them exposes inland areas more and makes vulnerability worse over time. 

Why is the Mangroves Ecosystem Under Severe Risk? 

• Climate Change: 
  • More Powerful Cyclones: Warmer oceans fuel stronger cyclones and storms that uproot mangroves, erode soils, and increase saltwater intrusion, harming freshwater species. 
    • E.g., Amphan (1st super cyclone in the Bay of Bengal since 1999), damaged around 28% of Sundarban mangroves and harmed floral diversity by increasing soil salinity. 
  • Rising Sea Levels: Mangroves face a dual threat as they are unable to shift inland due to farmlands, urban expansion, and flood-control structures, while rising sea levels flood them from the coast, causing a coastal squeeze.  
    • When sea levels rise faster than 7 mm per year, mangroves struggle to adapt and risk dying from prolonged submersion. 
  • Extreme Weather: Coral reef die-offs (from warming) remove natural wave barriers, exposing mangroves to stronger waves. 
• Human Induced Destruction: 
  • Deforestation for Aquaculture: Since 1980, 35% of the world’s mangroves have vanished due to aquaculture, unchecked development, and climate stress.  
    • In Southeast Asia, home to a third of global mangroves, cover declined by 3.4% between 2000 and 2016, with palm oil and rice farms also replacing mangroves. 
  • Coastal Development: Tourism resorts, ports, and road development lead to habitat fragmentation.  
    • E.g., Mumbai lost 40% of its mangroves to urban expansion over the past 20 years. 
  • Pollution & Overharvesting: Oil spills (e.g., 2020 Mauritius) suffocate mangrove roots, plastic waste blocks waterways, sewage triggers algal blooms, and illegal logging persists in Africa and Asia. 

Consequences of Losing Mangroves Ecosystem 

What are the Implications of Increasing Cyclone Intensity and Geographic Spread? 

• Ecological Devastation:  
  • Stronger cyclones uproot mangroves while saltwater intrusion kills freshwater-dependent plants. E.g., 62% of mangroves in southwest Florida suffered canopy damage from Hurricane Irma. 
  • Coral Reef Destruction: Cyclones damage coral reefs that protect shorelines, while warmer seas and storms trigger mass bleaching (e.g., Great Barrier Reef). 
  • Biodiversity Loss: Coastal ecosystems (seagrass, estuaries) face habitat fragmentation. Endangered species (e.g., Bengal tigers in Sundarbans) lose refuge. 
• Human & Economic Crises: 
  • Deadlier Storms & Flooding: Storms with higher wind speeds destroy homes and infrastructure, while heavier rainfall causes inland flooding. E..g, Cyclone Idai (2019) killed over 1,300 people in Mozambique. 
  • Mass Displacement & Migration: Small island nations (e.g., Fiji, Bahamas) face existential threats, with a 2021 World Bank report warning that +200 million people could be displaced by 2050 due to the climate crisis. 
  • Economic Losses: Climate-related damage rose from USD 450 billion (2000–2004) to over USD 1 trillion (2020–2024). E.g., Hurricane Helene (2024) alone caused USD 100+ billion in damage, making it one of the costliest US hurricanes. 
• Food Security Risks: Rice paddies & crops in cyclone-prone Asia (India, Bangladesh) face salinization. 
  • E.g., Cyclone Amphan washed away about 1.7 million hectares of productive cropland and aquaculture farms and killed 2.1 million animals in India (West Bengal and Odisha). 
• New Regions at Risk: Mediterranean, South Atlantic, and higher latitudes (e.g., Japan, New Zealand) may face first-ever cyclones. 
  • Mega-cities like Miami, Shanghai, and Lagos, built for past climates, face catastrophic damage. 

Way Forward 

• Building Resilience Against Cyclones: Expand cyclone tracking with satellites and AI; conduct evacuation drills and build storm-resistant infrastructure. Restore coral reefs, wetlands, and protect mangroves as natural barriers. 
  • According to the UN Environment Programme, every USD 1 invested in climate change adaptation generates a USD 4 return by reducing economic losses and cutting disaster recovery costs. 
• Restoring Mangrove Ecosystems: Strictly enforce bans on illegal logging and aquaculture in mangrove areas while scaling up restoration efforts using “Building with Nature” approaches. Implement. 
  • Implement zoning laws to limit sprawl, engage communities with incentives, and promote ecotourism and sustainable fishing to reduce harmful practices. 
• Climate Mitigation Efforts: Accelerate the shift to renewable energy to keep warming under 2°C, enforce carbon pricing and stricter emission regulations, strengthen NDCs, and boost climate financing for vulnerable nations. 
• International Cooperation: The Loss and Damage Fund should prioritize cyclone-prone and mangrove-rich nations. Use debt-for-nature swaps (e.g., Indonesia, Bangladesh) and develop stress-tolerant mangroves. 

Drishti Mains Question:

Q. Discuss the impact of climate change on the intensity and geographic spread of tropical cyclones. How can this affect vulnerable ecosystems and human settlements?

UPSC Civil Services Examination Previous Year Question (PYQ) 

Prelims

Q. Consider the following statements: (2020)

1. Jet streams occur in the Northern Hemisphere only. 
2. Only some cyclones develop an eye. 
3. The temperature inside the eye of a cyclone is nearly 10ºC lesser than that of the surroundings. 

Which of the statements given above is/are correct? 

(a) 1 only 

(b) 2 and 3 only 

(c) 2 only 

(d) 1 and 3 only 

Ans: (c) 

Q. In the South Atlantic and South-Eastern Pacific regions in tropical latitudes, cyclone does not originate. What is the reason? (2015)

(a) Sea surface temperatures are low 

(b) Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone seldom occurs 

(c) Coriolis force is too weak 

(d) Absence of land in those regions 

Ans: (b) 

---

Mains

Q. Tropical cyclones are largely confined to the South China Sea, Bay of Bengal and Gulf of Mexico. Why? (2014)