Building a Resilient Global Nuclear Order

• 17 Nov 2025

This editorial is based on “ Donald Trump shakes up the global nuclear order  ”, which was published in The Hindu on 14/11/2025. The article highlights how Donald Trump’s decision to resume U.S. nuclear testing risks dismantling long-standing global arms control norms, potentially igniting new nuclear arms races among major powers and endangering the stability of the international nuclear order.

For Prelims: NPT (1968), SALT I & II, ABM Treaty (1972), INF Treaty (1987), Open Skies, CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty)Treaty, Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), TPNW (Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons) , Nuclear Security Summit 

For Mains:  Evolution of Global Nuclear Landscape Over the Years, Prevailing Issues with the Contemporary Global Nuclear Order, The Key Features of India’s Nuclear Doctrine

Donald Trump’s declaration to resume U.S. nuclear testing marks the most consequential global nuclear policy shift in decades. Against a backdrop of weakening arms control treaties and an accelerating arms race between the U.S., Russia, and China, the decision threatens long-standing non-proliferation norms and heightens nuclear dangers. As the world faces the risk of renewed rivalry and instability, navigating the future of the global nuclear order demands urgent, collective rethinking and international diplomacy, with India’s strategic role and responsible nuclear posture becoming increasingly significant.

How has the Global Nuclear Landscape Evolved Over the Years?

• Bipolar Deterrence During the Cold War: 
  • US–USSR Bipolarity: The nuclear order was dominated by two superpowers engaged in Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), creating a fragile but stable deterrence. 
  • Arms Control Architecture: Key treaties such as the NPT (1968), SALT I & II, ABM Treaty (1972), and INF Treaty (1987) institutionalised restraint and verification. 
  • Crisis Stability: Despite flashpoints like the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), robust channels of communication and predictable behaviour ensured strategic stability. 
• Unipolarity and Partial Disarmament post-Cold War: 
  • Breakup of the Soviet Union: Weapons were dismantled or transferred, aided by cooperative programs. 
    • The Nunn–Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) Program, initiated by the U.S. Congress in 1991, provided technical and financial assistance to dismantle nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons in former Soviet states safely. 
    • In addition, the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I and II) facilitated the reduction and limitation of deployed strategic nuclear warheads between the U.S. and Russia, further contributing to global nuclear stability. 
  • US Unipolar Moment: Russia’s decline led to the U.S. shaping nuclear norms, pushing for non-proliferation and selective disarmament. 
  • New Nuclear States: India, Pakistan, and North Korea emerged outside the NPT framework, complicating the global consensus. 
• Rise of Multipolarity and Increasing Instability in the 21st Century: 
  • Return of Great Power Competition: The U.S., Russia, and China are modernising their arsenals, eroding earlier arms control pacts. 
  • Erosion of Treaties: The ABM Treaty, INF, and Open Skies—many pillars of Cold War stability—have been dismantled. 
  • Nuclear Testing Concerns: Proposals to resume nuclear testing (e.g., U.S. debate in 2025) threaten to unravel the CTBT norm, raising global alarm. 
    • The shift from structured bipolar deterrence to an evolving multipolar contest has made the global nuclear order more uncertain, raising the risk of miscalculation, arms races, and erosion of long-standing non-proliferation frameworks.

What are the Key Issues Shaping the Current Global Nuclear Landscape? 

• Asymmetry within the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) : 
  • The NPT creates a hierarchy of Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) and Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS), leading to legitimacy concerns. 
    • Discontent among NNWS persists because Article VI disarmament commitments by NWS remain largely unfulfilled. 
  • Key states outside the NPT—India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea—operate nuclear programs independently, weakening the global regime’s legitimacy. 
    • North Korea’s withdrawal in 2003 demonstrated the loophole allowing states to exit the treaty after gaining nuclear advantage. 
• Erosion of Arms Control Architecture 
  • Collapse of Bilateral Treaties : U.S.–Russia arms control structures have eroded: 
    • The INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) Treaty collapsed in 2019. 
    • Furthermore, the New START Treaty, which limits deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems, faces uncertainty beyond 2026 due to strained bilateral relations and geopolitical tensions. 
  • Renewed Arms Race : All nuclear-armed states are investing in modernizing warheads, delivery systems, hypersonic weapons, MIRVs, and AI-enabled systems. 
    • SIPRI (2024) reports a global increase in operational nuclear warheads for the first time in decades. 
    • The U.S., under recent policy announcements, has signaled intent to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 1992, citing advances by Russia and China. 
• Weak Enforcement and Verification Mechanisms: 
  • CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty): It has not entered into force due to non-ratification by major states like the U.S., China, India, Pakistan. 
    • Possibility of renewed testing threatens global moratoriums. 
  • IAEA Limitations: IAEA safeguards depend on state cooperation; non-compliance cases such as Iran highlight enforcement challenges. 
    • “Weaponization ambiguity” in dual-use nuclear technology complicates monitoring. 
  • Militarization of Emerging Domains: Nuclear doctrines now intersect with space militarization, cyber warfare, and missile defense systems, complicating deterrence stability. 
    • Concerns that cyber intrusions may compromise nuclear command and control systems. 
  • Automation and AI Risks: The incorporation of automation and artificial intelligence (AI) into early-warning systems increases the chances of false alarms, which could trigger unnecessary alerts. 
    • It also raises the risk of escalation in tense situations due to rapid, automated responses.  
    • Additionally, it may lead to a loss of human control, as decision-making becomes increasingly dependent on AI systems rather than human judgment. 
• Regional Nuclear Flashpoints Escalating 
  • Indo–Pacific Tensions: India–Pakistan rivalry remains fragile, with sub-conventional conflicts raising risk of miscalculation. 
    • China’s expanding arsenal adds a tri-polar dynamic in Asia. 
  • Middle East Nuclear Uncertainty: Iran’s uranium enrichment levels and revival of JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) remain uncertain. 
    • Potential for a regional proliferation cascade involving Saudi Arabia and others. 
  • Korean Peninsula Instability: North Korea’s continued missile tests defy global norms and challenge deterrence frameworks. 
    • For instance, North Korea claims it has developed AI-powered “suicide attack” drones, raising further regional security concerns. 
  • Fragmentation of Global Leadership: Rivalries among major powers (U.S.–China, U.S.–Russia) reduce cooperation on nuclear-risk reduction and arms-control initiatives. 
• Expansion of Civil Nuclear Energy and Dual-Use Risks : 
  • Spread of Nuclear Technology: Growing demand for nuclear energy increases the dissemination of sensitive technologies such as enrichment and reprocessing (ENR). 
    • Raises risks of clandestine military programs under the guise of peaceful use. 
  • Nuclear Security Risks: Threats of nuclear terrorism, unsecured materials, and sabotage remain high despite efforts by the Nuclear Security Summit process. 
    • The 2020 NPT Review Conference did not yield substantive progress, reflecting eroding consensus.

What are the Key Features of India’s Nuclear Doctrine? 

• No First Use (NFU) Policy: India pledges not to use nuclear weapons first; they will only be used in retaliation to a nuclear attack on Indian territory or Indian forces. 
  • Massive Retaliation: Any nuclear attack on India will invite a “massive retaliation” designed to inflict unacceptable damage, ensuring strong deterrence. 
• Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD): India maintains only the minimum nuclear capability necessary for deterrence, avoiding an arms race while ensuring strategic security. 
• Second-Strike Capability: India aims to ensure survivability of its nuclear arsenal—land, air, and sea-based platforms (triad)—so it can retaliate even after absorbing a first strike. 
• Civilian Political Control: Nuclear weapons remain under the strict control of civilian leadership, specifically the Nuclear Command Authority (NCA) headed by the Prime Minister. 
• Non-Use Against Non-Nuclear States: India commits to not using nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states, reinforcing its principled and responsible posture. 
• Rejection of Nuclear Arms Race: India opposes any nuclear arms build-up and advocates for global, verifiable, and non-discriminatory disarmament. 
• Commitment to International Norms: India supports global nuclear stability and non-proliferation through participation in regimes like the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), Wassenaar Arrangement (WA), and Australia Group, despite not being an NPT signatory. 

What Steps are Needed to Build a Stronger and More Stable Global Nuclear Order?  

• Revive Arms Control Agreements:Rebuild trust through renewed U.S.–Russia negotiations to extend or replace New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), which limits deployed strategic warheads. 
  • The 2021 extension of New START shows that cooperation is still possible even amid tensions. 
  • Consider a modern successor to the INF Treaty to prevent deployment of new intermediate-range missiles in Europe and Asia. 
• Strengthen the Non-Proliferation Regime: Strengthen enforcement and verification under the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) by ensuring compliance and addressing concerns of non-NPT states. 
  • Encourage more states to adopt the IAEA Additional Protocol for enhanced inspections. 
    • Iran’s nuclear program illustrates the importance of robust IAEA monitoring. 
  • Enhance the CTBT’s International Monitoring System (IMS) to detect any covert tests. 
    • North Korea’s 2017 nuclear test underscored the urgency of a universal test ban. 
• Strengthen Multilateral Diplomacy & Track-II Dialogue: Break deadlocks in the UN Conference on Disarmament, which has not negotiated a new treaty since 1996. 
  • Involve think-tanks, scientists, and civil society to build trust. The “Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs” played a key role in easing Cold War tensions. 
  • Promote diplomatic frameworks in volatile regions such as South Asia and the Korean Peninsula. 
    • Strengthen early-warning systems and cross-border communication. 
    • India–Pakistan DGMO hotline (revived in 2021) helps manage border tensions. 
  • Encourage voluntary declarations of nuclear stockpiles and doctrine clarity. 
  • Cap warhead production and delivery systems through bilateral or plurilateral agreements. 
    • Example: France and the UK regularly publish nuclear arsenal numbers, promoting transparency. 
• Regulate Emerging Strategic Technologies: Establish norms for AI-enabled systems, hypersonic weapons, cyber warfare, and space-based assets. 
  • China, Russia, and the U.S. are testing hypersonic glide vehicles, increasing first-strike fears. 
  • There is a need to develop crisis-management protocols to prevent cyberattacks on nuclear command systems. 
• Promote Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy: Expand cooperation in nuclear energy under strict safeguards through IAEA technical assistance programs. 
  • Use nuclear technology for medicine, agriculture, and climate mitigation. 
    • India’s Nuclear Energy Mission aims to expand nuclear power capacity to 100 GW by 2047. 
  • India’s use of nuclear technology in agriculture helped produce radiation-mutated high-yield crop varieties. 

Conclusion 

As Reagan-Gorbachev aptly stated, "A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought." To safeguard global peace, India and the international community must revive arms control frameworks, strengthen risk reduction mechanisms, commit to non-proliferation and disarmament, and regulate emerging technologies. Proactive diplomacy and inclusive global cooperation are essential to build a resilient nuclear order that guarantees long-term security and stability for all nations. 

Drishti Mains Question:

Examine the challenges faced by the contemporary global nuclear order and suggest measures to strengthen nuclear stability and non-proliferation. 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) 

Q.1.What are the key treaties that shaped the global nuclear order during the Cold War? 
The global nuclear order was institutionalized through NPT (1968), SALT I & II, ABM Treaty (1972), INF Treaty (1987), and mechanisms like Open Skies and CTBT to ensure strategic stability and verification.

Q.2.What are the main issues undermining the contemporary global nuclear order? 
Key issues include erosion of arms control treaties (INF collapse, New START uncertainty), structural inequality under NPT, renewed arms race, automation and AI risks, regional flashpoints (Indo–Pacific, Middle East, Korean Peninsula), and dual-use proliferation risks.

Q.3.What are the key features of India’s nuclear doctrine? 
India follows No First Use (NFU), credible minimum deterrence, massive retaliation, second-strike capability via nuclear triad, civilian political control, non-use against non-nuclear states, and supports global non-proliferation norms while rejecting an arms race.

Q.4.How can the global nuclear order be strengthened and stabilized? 
By reviving arms control agreements (New START extension, INF successor), universalizing NPT compliance and CTBT ratification, regulating AI, hypersonic, cyber, and space-based systems, promoting peaceful nuclear energy, and enhancing multilateral diplomacy and Track-II dialogue.

Q.5.What is the significance of international diplomacy and confidence-building in nuclear risk reduction? 
Diplomatic initiatives like DGMO hotlines, voluntary stockpile declarations, and forums such as Pugwash Conferences reduce miscalculation risks, build trust among nuclear powers, and promote stability and long-term global security.

UPSC Civil Services Examination, Previous Year Questions (PYQs) 

Prelims

Q. In India, why are some nuclear reactors kept under “IAEA safeguards” while others are not? (2020)

(a) Some use uranium and others use thorium 

(b) Some use imported uranium and others use domestic supplies 

(c) Some are operated by foreign enterprises and others are operated by domestic enterprises 

(d) Some are State-owned and others are privately owned 

Ans: (b)

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Mains

Q. With growing energy needs should India keep on expanding its nuclear energy programme? Discuss the facts and fears associated with nuclear energy. (2018)