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El Nino Forecast For 2019

  • 25 Mar 2019
  • 3 min read

US weather agencies have forecasted that there is a 60% chance of El Nino this summer season.

  • The forecast if turn out to be true could negatively affect India’s Monsoon season.

El Nino

  • El Nino refers to the unusual warming of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean which affects global weather. The warmer waters of the Pacific Ocean cause the winds in various regions to reverse, like the trade winds that come towards India.
  • This change of wind direction leads to warmer winters and summers and a decrease in rainfall during the monsoon. Most of the time, it also leads to drought.
  • There is also an opposite of an El Niño, called La Niña means The Little Girl in Spanish. This refers to times when waters of the tropical eastern Pacific are colder than normal and trade winds blow more strongly than usual.
  • Collectively, El Niño and La Niña are parts of an oscillation in the ocean-atmosphere system called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO cycle.

Effects of El Nino

  • El Nino affects global weather. It favors eastern Pacific hurricanes and tropical storms.
  • Recorded unusual rainfall in Peru, Chile, and Ecuador are linked to the climate pattern.
  • El Nino reduces the upwelling of cold water, decreasing the uplift of nutrients from the bottom of the ocean. This affects marine life and sea birds. The fishing industry is also affected.
  • Drought caused by El Nino can be widespread, affecting southern Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Australia, and the Pacific Islands. Countries dependent on agriculture are affected.
  • WHO report on the health consequences of El Nino forecasts a rise in vector-borne diseases, including those spread by mosquitoes, in Central and South America. Cycles of malaria in India are also linked to El Nino.
  • Over India, the El Nino has usually been the harbinger of drought and the La Nina of rain.
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