Mains Marathon

Approach :

• Briefly define the traditional Indian monsoon system
• Highlight the emerging shift in Indian monsoon patterns.
• Mention the climate change factors disrupting monsoon patterns.
• Highlight the broader implications.
• Conclude with a way forward.

Introduction:

The Indian monsoon, primarily driven by the differential heating of land and sea, has historically followed a predictable rhythm, with the southwest monsoon (June–September) delivering about 75% of India’s annual rainfall. It has been the lifeline of Indian agriculture, economy, and water security, with communities timing cropping cycles, festivals, and livelihoods around its regularity.

Body :

Emerging Shift in Monsoon Patterns

• Delayed onset or early withdrawal of the monsoon.
• Erratic rainfall patterns with long dry spells followed by extreme rain events.
  • Floods in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand coincided with droughts in Jharkhand and Bihar.
• Spatial disparities, where regions like central India receive excessive rains while eastern and northeastern states experience deficits.
  • The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported a 35% increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall events over central India during 1950–2020.
• Increased break periods during the active monsoon phase.
• The IPCC AR6 Report projects a likely increase in the intensity of monsoonal precipitation across South Asia due to global warming.

Climate Change Factors Disrupting Monsoon Patterns

• Warming Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea: Enhances evaporation, disrupting wind patterns and low-pressure zones.
• Melting Himalayan glaciers: Affect monsoon circulation due to feedback loops in atmospheric pressure.
• El Niño and La Niña anomalies: Increasing frequency and intensity contribute to irregular monsoon patterns.
• Urban heat islands and land-use changes: Local climatic changes further destabilize regional monsoon behavior.

Broader Implications

• Agriculture and Food Security
  • Kharif crops (e.g., paddy, pulses) are sensitive to rainfall timing and amount.
  • Crop failures or shifting sowing seasons are becoming more frequent, especially in monsoon-dependent states like Madhya Pradesh and Odisha.
  • Farmers in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh have had to shift to less water-intensive crops.
• Water Scarcity and Resource Stress
  • Groundwater recharge is affected by short intense downpours instead of steady rains.
  • Drought-prone regions like Bundelkhand suffer severe shortages even during monsoon seasons.
• Urban Flooding and Infrastructure
  • Cities like Bengaluru, Gurugram, and Mumbai face severe flooding due to short-duration cloudbursts and poor drainage.
  • The current urban infrastructure is unable to handle sudden rainfall spikes.
• Public Health and Ecosystem Impact
  • Floods increase waterborne and vector-borne diseases.
  • Erratic rains disturb breeding cycles of insects and animals, disrupting biodiversity.

Government Measures

• National Monsoon Mission: To improve monsoon forecasting using high-resolution models.
• State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCCs): Encourage local adaptive capacity.
• Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana, PMFBY: Climate-resilient agriculture.
• Amrit Sarovar and Jal Shakti Abhiyan: Focus on decentralized water conservation.
• Disaster management reforms: Investment in flood-resilient infrastructure and early warning systems.

Conclusion :

The increasingly erratic Indian monsoon underscores the urgency of aligning with SDG-13 (Climate Action) and SDG-2 (Zero Hunger) to safeguard livelihoods and food security. As climatologist Peter Gleick aptly noted, “The impacts of climate change will be felt most directly through water.” A resilient monsoon strategy—rooted in scientific forecasting, sustainable agriculture, and climate-resilient infrastructure—is essential for India’s ecological and economic stability.