Mains Marathon

Approach

• Start your answer by giving a brief on Russia-Ukraine War
• Discuss the regional and global implications of the Russia-Ukraine war on the present world order
• Conclude Your answer by giving a way forward

Answer:

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine will reportedly have major ramifications for the global economy, which is just recovering from the stress of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had pointed out earlier that both Russia and Ukraine are major commodity producers, and disruptions there have resulted in soaring global prices, especially that of oil and natural gas. With Ukraine and Russia accounting for up to 30% of the global exports for wheat, food prices, too, have jumped. The IMF added that the entire global economy would feel the effects with slower growth and faster inflation.

Regional Implications of Russia-Ukraine War

• Poverty and Hunger: The conflict disrupted Ukraine’s planting and harvest season, destroyed critical fields, stores, infrastructure and production, especially in eastern Ukraine. It has led to a situation of widespread hunger and poverty in Ukraine.
• Commodity trade: The wider supply-chain disruptions due to Russia-Ukraine War has led to a significant reduction in the trade of Ukraine and Russia with the other countries of the world.
• Services and Travel: The war is likely to stall the post-pandemic recovery in tourism, which was already anaemic from ongoing COVID-19 disruptions. A further intensification of geopolitical tensions could trigger a renewed decline in international tourism, which would likely be akin to the sharp fall and subsequent weak recovery from 9/11.
• Debt servicing and financing: The war has added to the debt of Ukraine and Russia and caused disruption of financial ser4vices of the region.

Global Implications of Russia-Ukraine War

Geo-political Ramifications:

The War has brought into focus the role of NATO once again, it might lead to formation of alliances and counter alliances like the cold war era and may prompt these countries to go for increase in defense expenditure to meet their security needs as now they don’t trust the credibility of the global institutions like the UNO.

It has also demonstrated the old friendship ties between India and Russia despite of India’s dependance on the west for various needs.

Humanitarian impact:

According to the United Nations, more than eleven million people have left their homes in Ukraine so far: 5.3 million of which have left to neighbouring countries, while 6.5 million people are now internally displaced in the country itself amidst the continuation of the war. The UN's children agency believes that two-thirds of all Ukrainian kids have been impacted and have had to flee their homes.

A global food crisis:

Ukraine grows enough food to feed 400 million people worlwide, which includes 50% of the world's sunflower oil supply, 10% of the worldwide grain supply and 13% of global corn supply. As for now, up to 30% of crop areas in Ukraine will either not be planted or be unharvested this year because of the Russian attack. In addition to this, supply chains from Ukraine have been disrupted, because of the closure of the Black Sea ports and limited ability to transport commodities through the Western border.

Energy challenges:

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has the potential to accelerate the global shift to green energy in the long run, but as for the short-term it will have huge consequences on energy price and market structures. Firstly, countries are working on contingency plans as a response to the shortage of oil and gas. The United States, United Kingdom and Canada imposed an embargo on Russian oil and gas imports. The EU is working on plans to decrease dependence from Russian gas and oil by 2024, too.

World security architecture must be rethought:

The Russian invasion into Ukraine is raising questions about national sovereignty, democracy versus autocracy, human rights and the global world order. This means that whatever its outcome may be, it could mark a turning point for the world's security infrastructure.

The current security architecture as we know it, established after World War Two, could be overthrown. This could have effects on the global economy, too.

Way Forward

The Russia-Ukraine war is not only having a negative impact on these two countries but it is a cause of concern for all the countries of the world both from the economical and humanitarian point of view. Thus, there is a need that the major countries of the world should come together including India to prompt dialogue between Russia and Ukraine so that this disastrous war could be stopped.