Study Material | Test Series
Drishti IAS
call1800-121-6260 / 011-47532596
Drishti The Vision Foundation
(A unit of VDK Eduventures Pvt. Ltd.)
prelims Test Series 2019
बेसिक इंग्लिश का दूसरा सत्र (कक्षा प्रारंभ : 22 अक्तूबर, शाम 3:30 से 5:30)
Q. IMD predicts excess rainfall: In the backdrop of recent forecast, discuss the importance of a good monsoon in the present context of India.
Jun 04, 2016 Related to : GS Paper-3 and 1

Ans :


Two days back the India Meteorological Department (IMD) department has updated its earlier monsoon forecast and expressed that this year’s monsoon will be above normal monsoon and rains will be evenly spread. IMD’s recent forecast raised the hopes in the country, which has been hit hard by two back-to-back droughts.

IMD recent forecast-

  • This year’s monsoon will be above normal monsoon i.e 106% of the long period average (LPA) (The monsoon is considered normal when the rainfall is 96-104% of the LPA and is considered above normal when it is 105-110% of the LPA).

  • The monsoon is expected to be well-distributed across the country. Rains will be well distributed across the key crop farming areas in the north-west, central and southern peninsular regions, with the likelihood of a shortfall seen only for the north-east.

  • It also predicted that there will be zero per cent chances of the country receiving deficient rainfall.

Its importance in the present context-

  • Since last two years India has faced acute drought that has turned large part of hinterland into dried dustbowls and also a scorching summer heavily affected the lives in large part of India.

  • South-west monsoon constitutes 80% of total rainfall in India and rural economy is completely dependent on the amount of rainfall. Almost two-thirds of India’s total population has directly linked and dependent on the rural economy.  Hence a good monsoon is vital for Indian economy.

  • A good monsoon will provide a favourable supply shock by strengthening rural demand and augmenting the availability of farm produce that would help moderate inflation.

  • Though agriculture and allied economic activities contribute about 15% overall GDP, they have a disproportionate impact on rural consumption, as they provide livelihood for almost half of the country’s workforce.

  • Business of other sectors gets influenced by rural economy. Manufacturers of goods ranging from personal care products to tractors, a bountiful monsoon can potentially deliver a substantial boost to sales.

  • Also adequate rainfall helps to improve electricity supply in states more dependent on hydel-power, which is vital for developing economy.


Many times weather phenomena are unpredictable and changes abruptly. Track record of IMD’s prediction is also not very good, its success rate of about 30% in correctly predicting the rainfall range over the last 10 years.

A good monsoon is very vital for Indian economy. The recent IMD’s forecast of rainfall has brought cheers in the minds of people. In India usage water is irrational and unscientific and it led to water scarcity. Hence government needs to use this opportunity to strengthen the water retention and storage infrastructure. In backdrop of severe draught in last two year and alarming levels to which groundwater has declined countrywide, both central and state governments need to be more focused on enabling recharge of aquifers and existing water bodies.

Helpline Number : 87501 87501
To Subscribe Newsletter and Get Updates.