Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero | 14 Feb 2026

Source: PIB 

Why in News?  

NITI Aayog has released a comprehensive set of 11 reports focusing on "Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero," developed by ten Inter-Ministerial Working Groups. 

• These reports provide an integrated assessment of how India can achieve the ambitious vision of becoming a Viksit Bharat (Developed Nation) by 2047 with a GDP of USD 30 trillion, while simultaneously honoring its commitment to achieve Net Zero Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 2070. 

What are the Key Highlights of NITI Aayog Reports on "Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero"? 

Macroeconomic and Social Impacts 

• GDP Structure: The economy will shift from "Consumption-Led" to "Investment-Driven." Private consumption share will drop, while investment share will rise. 
  • GDP is projected to rise from USD 4.18 trillion (2025) to USD 30 trillion (2047). 
• Trade Balance: While critical mineral imports will rise, fossil fuel import savings are estimated at INR 9 trillion by 2070, strengthening economic resilience. 
• Employment: 
  • Green Jobs: The energy sector will add 7 million jobs by 2050. 
  • Just Transition: Fossil-fuel dependent districts (over 150) will face restructuring, requiring massive skilling and social protection for workers. 
• Land Conflict: Renewable energy expansion requires vast land, potentially competing with agriculture and ecology. 
• Role of Behavior: Initiatives like Mission LiFE are critical to moderate demand through lifestyle changes (e.g., public transport, efficient cooling). 
• Urbanization: The urban population will swell from 37% in 2023 to 51% by 2047 and 65% by 2070. 
• Infrastructure Boom: 
  • Housing: 86% of the building floor space required by 2070 is yet to be built. 
  • Cooling: Air Conditioner (AC) penetration is projected to rise from 10% today to 80% by 2070, significantly increasing energy demand. 
  • Vehicle Ownership: Car ownership per 1,000 people will jump from 32 to 200-250 by 2070. 

Energy Transition under the Net Zero Scenario 

• Electrification is Key: Electricity’s share in final energy demand will triple, rising from 21% (2025) to 60% (2070) under the Net Zero Scenario. 
  • Drivers: Electric Vehicles (EVs), induction cooking, and industrial heat pumps. 
• Shift in Power Generation: 
  • Renewables: Solar and Wind capacity will scale massively from ~164 GW (2025) to over 6,000 GW (2070). 
  • Nuclear Energy: Envisioned as a strategic pillar, scaling from 8 GW to over 300 GW by 2070 to provide firm, baseload power. 
  • Fossil Fuels: The share of fossil fuels in the primary energy mix will drop from 87% (2025) to 14% (2070).  
    • Remaining fossil fuel usage will rely on Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage (CCUS). 
• Grid Emissions: The grid emission factor is projected to drop to zero by 2070. 

Financial Implications and Investment Gaps 

• Investment Requirement: The Net Zero Scenario requires a cumulative investment of USD 22.7 trillion by 2070. 
  • This translates to USD 500 billion per year, compared to the current annual investment of USD 135 billion. 
• Financing Gap: Even with domestic reforms, a financing gap of USD 6.5 trillion remains. 
• Reliance on Foreign Capital: To bridge this gap, the share of international capital sources (FDI, concessional finance) may need to rise from 17% to 42% by 2070. 

Critical Minerals 

• Demand Surge: The transition from fossil fuels to clean technologies moves energy security risks from "fuel supply" to "mineral supply." 
  • Demand for Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) will increase by 51% in the Net Zero Scenario compared to current policies. 
• Key Minerals: 
  • Copper & Graphite: Account for two-thirds of demand. 
  • Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel: India faces near-total import dependence for these. 
• Sectors Driving Demand: EV Batteries (55% of demand) and Solar Technologies (30%). 
• Strategy: India needs to enhance exploration, secure international assets, and promote circularity (recycling). 

What are India's Challenges in Achieving Viksit Bharat and Net Zero? 

• The "Unprecedented Experiment" of Scale: The NITI Aayog notes that no major economy has ever attempted to scale its GDP eightfold (from ~USD 4.18 trillion to USD 30 trillion) within a single generation while simultaneously transforming its energy system to Net Zero. 
• Nascent Technology: Key technologies required for this transition specifically CCUS, Long-duration Energy Storage, and Small Modular Nuclear Reactors remain "nascent and unproven at scale in India." 
• The Financing Gap & Macroeconomic Shift: The transition demands a structural shift where the share of Private Consumption in GDP drops (from 58% in 2025 to 52% in 2070), while Investment share rises.  
  • This implies a "tightening of domestic liquidity" that could crowd out consumption if not balanced by foreign inflows. 
• Critical Mineral Security: For Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt, and Rare Earth Elements, India faces near-total dependence on imports due to a lack of domestic reserves. 
  • Even where raw materials might be available, there are gaps in refining capacity (e.g., Polysilicon for solar panels). 
• Water Stress: A critical spatial challenge is that nearly 75% of India's renewable energy capacity is clustered in water-stressed states, creating a conflict between energy generation and water conservation. 
• Infrastructure "Lock-in" Risk: The NITI Aayog highlights that 86% of the building floor space that will exist in 2070 is yet to be built. 
  • With Air Conditioner ownership projected to jump from 10% to over 80%, there is a massive risk of "locking in" high energy demand if passive design and super-efficient appliances are not mandated immediately. 
• Social & Regional Disparities: The report identifies that over 150 districts are dependent on coal and thermal power ecosystems. 
  • Fossil-fuel-linked manufacturing currently employs nearly 17 million workers.  
  • These sectors face "profound restructuring pressures," requiring large-scale social protection and reskilling to prevent regional economic collapse. 
• Agriculture's Dual Vulnerability: Agriculture is unique as it is both a source of emissions and a victim of climate change.  
  • The challenge is to mitigate emissions (which are often "invisible") while ensuring food security for the largest employer in the country, without disrupting farmer livelihoods. 

What Measures can Strengthen India’s Path Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero? 

• Behavioral Change: Systematically integrate Mission LiFE to encourage sustainable consumption. 
  • Enforce "Extended Producer Responsibility" (EPR) and recycled-content standards to minimize virgin resource use. 
• Reorient Urban Mobility: Focus on integrating rail, metro, and non-motorized transport rather than just switching private vehicles to EVs. 
  • Develop Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) by integrating land use and transport planning to reduce the need for travel. Shift freight to efficient modes like Rail and Waterways. 
• Future-Proofing Buildings: Since 80% of the 2070 building stock is yet to be built, strict codes are essential.  
  • Use benchmarking, disclosure, and Green Procurement to make "Net Zero Ready" buildings the norm. 
• Industrial Competitiveness in a Green World: Use Blended Finance and public procurement to de-risk Green Hydrogen, CCUS, and low-carbon cement. 
  • Strengthen carbon measurement and certification systems to prepare for global carbon border taxes. 
• Resilient Supply Chains: Avoid replacing fossil fuel dependence with mineral dependence. Accelerate domestic exploration and refining. Empower institutions like KABIL for overseas asset acquisition. 
• Integrated Land & Water Planning: Promote Agrivoltaics, Floating Solar, and repurposing of degraded/mined lands. 
  • Adopt basin-aware strategies for water-intensive technologies like Green Hydrogen. 
• Just Transition (People, Jobs, Affordability): Utilize District Mineral Foundations (DMF) and Skill India Mission to finance worker shifts. Upgrade the e-Shram platform to link informal workers in fossil sectors to new green opportunities. 
• Adaptation & Resilience: Treat adaptation as equal to mitigation. Conduct vulnerability mapping and "Climate-Proof" critical infrastructure to protect development gains from worsening climate risks. 
• Climate Finance: India needs USD 500 billion/year (vs. current ~USD 135 billion) to achieve net zero emissions by 2070.  
  • Establish a National Green Finance Institution to anchor blended finance.  
  • Develop a unified Climate Finance Taxonomy to boost market confidence.  
  • Expand GIFT City platforms to crowd in sovereign wealth funds and foreign capital. 
• Data as Core Infrastructure: Establish credible Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems. 
  • Create an interoperable digital layer for EV charging (Unified Energy Interface (UEI))  and energy services (similar to UPI for payments). 
• Strong Institutional Architecture: Establish a Low Carbon Development Cell under the Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change to align Centre-State action. 
  • Align five-year sectoral and state budgets with India's NDC (Nationally Determined Contributions) cycle.

Conclusion

NITI Aayog concludes that India’s Net Zero transition is not just a climate imperative but a developmental opportunity. 

• Just as the steam engine defined the Industrial Revolution, India’s transition can create a new "Indian Development Model"—one that combines economic vitality with sustainability—serving as a lighthouse for the Global South. 
• While global climate finance remains uncertain, India’s pathway must align with fairness and climate justice, ensuring that the transition remains compatible with economic inclusion and resilience.