Iran-Israel Conflict 2025 | 16 Jun 2025

Source: IE  

Israel, under “Operation Rising Lion”, launched airstrikes and drone attacks on Iran’s nuclear and military sites — including Tehran, the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, a nuclear research centre, two military bases in Tabriz, and an underground missile storage site in Kermanshah — to prevent Iran from advancing towards building an atomic weapon. 

• In retaliation, Iran launched waves of ballistic missiles at Israel under “Operation True Promise 3”, causing explosions over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. 

What are the Reasons for the Iran-Israel Conflict 2025? 

• Historical Roots: The relationship between Iran and Israel has been marked by deep hostility since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which transformed Iran from a close ally of Israel under the Shah to an Islamic Republic openly antagonistic towards the Jewish state. 
• Religious and Ideological Divide: Iran, governed by Shia Islamic principles, and Israel, a predominantly Jewish state, are divided by stark religious and ideological differences.  
  • These fundamental disparities have fueled mutual distrust and animosity over the decades. 
• Iran’s Support for Anti-Israel Groups: Iran has been a staunch backer of Palestinian causes, including providing support to Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which are labeled as terrorist organisations by Israel.  
  • The rivalry plays out through proxy conflicts, with Iran supporting forces such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shia militias in Iraq, all seen by Israel as direct threats to its security. 
  • Iran’s vocal calls for Israel’s destruction have further intensified tensions. 
• Geopolitical Rivalry: Iran and Israel are locked in a struggle for regional dominance, with opposing interests in conflicts such as the Syrian civil war and the Yemen crisis.  
  • Iran backed the Assad regime in Syria and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, while Israel works to counter Iranian influence in these areas. 
• Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions: Israel views Iran’s nuclear programme as a serious threat, fearing the development of nuclear weapons that could endanger its existence.  
  • Israel has been a fierce critic of the Iran nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and has undertaken both overt and covert actions to disrupt Iran’s nuclear progress. 

What are the Implications of the Iran-Israel Conflict on India? 

• Hampering India’s Energy Security: For India, which imports nearly 2 million barrels of oil daily through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, any instability would mean supply shortages, spiraling energy costs, rising inflation, and constraints on economic growth. 
  • India is highly vulnerable to global oil price volatility; a sustained surge from regional conflict could trigger higher inflation, strain the fiscal balance, slow economic growth, and shift investor sentiment towards bonds and gold, as reflected in weaker Sensex and Nifty openings. 
• Impact on Indian Diaspora: Over 66% of India’s 1.34 crore NRIs live in the Middle East, mainly in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain. The large Indian diaspora in West Asia, especially the Persian Gulf, could face risks from regional tensions, making their safety a key priority for New Delhi. 
  • India has a history of conducting mass evacuations — notably during the Kuwait crisis (1990-91 Gulf War), and more recently from Libya and Ukraine. 
• Disruption to Strategic Connectivity: India’s key connectivity projects like the Chabahar port in Iran, which links it to Afghanistan and Central Asia, could be affected by regional turmoil.  
  • The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) faces risks from the conflict, threatening its progress and impacting bilateral trade and regional economic dynamics. 
  • Furthermore, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and surrounding waters could cause delays, higher shipping costs, and lead to instability in global trade routes. 
• Diplomatic Tightrope for India: India has built robust relations with Israel, especially in areas like defence, technology, and innovation. However, as tensions escalate, India could find itself in a challenging position, facing pressure to take sides — an outcome it would prefer to avoid.  
  • A worsening Israel-Iran conflict risks disrupting India’s delicate diplomatic balance, which it has effectively maintained over the past decade with Israel, Iran, and the Gulf Arab nations. 

What Could be the Possible Solutions to De-escalate the Iran - Israel Conflict? 

• Two-State Solution: Israel should move towards a sustainable ceasefire in Gaza, facilitate the flow of international humanitarian aid, and honour UN resolutions aimed at resolving the decades-old crisis through a two-state solution.  
  • This remains the most viable path for ensuring lasting security, peace, and stability in the region.  
    • A two-state solution envisions an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, helping Israel safeguard its security and preserve its Jewish demographic majority, while granting statehood to the Palestinian people. 
• Dialogue and Diplomacy: Direct engagement between Iran and Israel, with the support of neutral international mediators like the European Union or the United Nations, could pave the way for trust-building and meaningful negotiations to identify common ground. 
• Tackling Nuclear Proliferation: Iran could recommit to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), allowing international inspections to verify its compliance.  
  • In turn, Israel could acknowledge Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy and provide assurances against military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. 
• Strengthening Regional Cooperation: Encouraging collaboration between Iran and Israel within regional forums — such as the Arab League or Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — could help address shared security challenges and promote regional stability. 
• Steps Towards Normalisation: Iran and Israel could work towards normalising relations by exchanging ambassadors, reopening embassies, and fostering people-to-people connections, following the model of peace initiatives like those between Israel and the UAE or Bahrain. 

Conclusion 

The Iran-Israel conflict, rooted in historical, ideological, and geopolitical tensions, threatens regional stability and global security. For India, it poses risks to energy security, diaspora safety, and economic stability. Diplomatic solutions, nuclear non-proliferation, and regional cooperation are essential to de-escalate hostilities and ensure long-term peace in West Asia.