Future of India's Forest Carbon Storage | 21 Apr 2026

Source: TH 

A recent study published in Environmental Research: Climate reveals that India’s forests could nearly double their carbon storage by 2100, highlighting both climate mitigation potential and emerging ecological risks. 

• Projected Carbon Biomass Growth: The study predicts that vegetation carbon biomass will rise by 35% under a low-emissions future, 62% under a medium-emissions pathway, and up to 97% under a high-emissions, fossil-fuel-intensive scenario by 2100.  
  • The steepest acceleration is expected to occur after 2050. 
• Core Drivers of Increase: The growth is driven by two interacting forces: elevated atmospheric CO₂ (which enhances photosynthesis and water-use efficiency) and rising precipitation (which increases available moisture for tree growth. 
• Unconventional Geographical Shifts: Counterintuitively, the highest relative increases in carbon storage are projected in desert and semi-arid zones across Rajasthan, Gujarat, and western Madhya Pradesh, rather than in established forest heartlands. 
  • India's most ecologically significant regions, including the Western Ghats and the Himalayas, will see comparatively smaller relative increases due to ecological saturation and specific regional climatic pressures. 
• The "Masked Stress" Caveat: Researchers caution that the projected rise in forest vegetation and carbon storage is not necessarily a net positive, as current models fail to account for critical factors such as soil nutrient limitations and climate-driven disturbances like wildfires, droughts, pest outbreaks, and deforestation.  
  • As a result, the apparent increase in carbon stock may mask deeper ecological stress, raising concerns about forest instability, degradation, and the potential risk of large-scale carbon release in the future. 
• Divergence from Official Estimates: The study's long-term modelling diverges from the official Forest Survey of India (FSI) data.  
  • The FSI documents a more modest, steady rise based on actual field and remote sensing data (from 6.94 billion tonnes in 2013 to 7.29 billion tonnes in 2023, with a projection of 8.65 billion tonnes by 2030). 
• Significance for National Climate Goals: Understanding these carbon dynamics is crucial for achieving India’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for 2031–2035, which recently raised the country’s forest carbon sink target to 3.5–4 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent by 2035.