US-Israel Attack on Iran | 02 Mar 2026

Source: IE

Why in News? 

The US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran, reportedly killing Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (a Shia cleric), and targeting key strategic facilities while calling for regime change. 

• The joint offensive, referred to as Operation Epic Fury by the US and Operation Lion’s Roar by Israel, marked a major escalation in regional tensions. 
• Iran retaliated through Operation True Promise 4, launching missile attacks against Israel and nearby Gulf states. The escalation comes despite recent progress in US–Iran nuclear talks, raising fears of a wider West Asian conflict with significant global implications.

Why Did the US-Israel Attack on Iran?

• US and Israel Attack on Iran: Dissatisfied with the limited impact of the 2025 strikes and citing Iran’s continuing nuclear ambitions, the US viewed Iran’s large arsenal of ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones as an intolerable threat to US forces in the Gulf and regional allies. 
  • Unlike earlier operations focused on deterrence, the February 2026 strikes aimed at decapitation. 
  • The attacks reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with Washington calculating that removing him could fracture the highly centralized Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
  • The US military action was driven by a complex matrix of nuclear concerns, ambitions for regime change, domestic political pressure, deterrence calculations, and the escalation of strategic commitments.

Historical Background

• 1979 Rupture: Before 1979, Iran and Israel were strategic allies. After the Iranian Revolution, the new Islamic regime severed ties with Israel and adopted a strongly anti-Western ideology. 
  • The new regime branded the US the “Great Satan” and Israel the “Little Satan,” portraying both as sources of regional exploitation and using anti-colonial and anti-imperialist rhetoric as a core pillar of its worldview.
• Iran’s Nuclear Revelation: Tensions escalated sharply in the early 2000s when the world discovered Iran’s secret nuclear program.
• Regional Expansion: After the US-led overthrow of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein (a major regional rival of Tehran), a power vacuum emerged. 
  • Iran capitalized on this by building its “Axis of Resistance” (a network of allied proxy groups across the Middle East (including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen) to counter US and Israeli dominance.
• JCPOA Agreement: To curb Iran's advancing, covert nuclear program, the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), the European Union, and Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015.
  • It offered sanctions relief in exchange for strict limits on uranium enrichment.
• US Withdrawal (2018): Arguing the JCPOA was fatally flawed because it ignored Iran’s ballistic missile program and its funding of the "Axis of Resistance." The US unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018. In response, Iran aggressively ramped up its uranium enrichment, pushing close to weapons-grade capability.
• Collapse of the “Axis of Resistance” (2023–24): After the October 2023 Hamas attack, Israel’s multi-front campaign weakened Hamas, decapitated Hezbollah’s leadership, and contributed to the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, stripping Iran of key regional buffers.
• Operation Midnight Hammer (June 2025):  Israel launched pre-emptive strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites at Natanz and Isfahan. The US  later joined, using B-2 bombers and bunker-buster bombs to strike the deeply fortified Fordow facility. 
  • The US claimed the strikes inflicted severe damage on Iran’s nuclear facilities and infrastructure, aiming to delay its nuclear programme by disrupting key enrichment sites and critical capabilities.

What are the Implications of the US and Israel-Iran War?

Global

• Threat to Global Energy Security: The escalation heavily impacts the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint. 
  • The strait handles approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil daily (roughly 20% of global consumption) and 20-30% of global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) shipments. 
  • Any blockade or mining of this strait by Iran could paralyze global energy markets, leading to a massive spike in crude oil prices.
• Geopolitical Polarization: The conflict risks drawing in other global powers. Russia and China may deepen their strategic alignment with Iran, while the US consolidates its Western and Arab allies, further polarizing the global order.
• Disruption of Global Supply Chains: The militarization of West Asian skies and waters disrupts crucial trade routes connecting Asia to Europe, increasing freight and insurance costs globally.
• Commodity and Market Volatility: With major traders suspending energy shipments, the conflict has increased the “war premium” in global markets. 
  • Gold prices have surged as investors seek safety, and stock markets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi have halted trading.

India

• Energy Security and Economy: India is the world’s third-largest crude oil consumer and imports over 85–88% of its needs.
  • About 2.5 - 2.7 million barrels/day of oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait passes through the Strait of Hormuz. 
  • 80–85% of LPG and nearly 60% of LNG imports also transit through Hormuz.
  • While India's immediate oil needs are "covered for now" (likely due to strategic petroleum reserves and diversified imports from Russia). India lacks large strategic reserves for LPG and LNG, unlike crude oil.
    • Spot availability of LPG and LNG is limited, making supply disruptions harder to manage.
  • Prolonged Hormuz disruption could push oil above USD 100 per barrel, sharply raising India’s import bill.
  • Short-term needs are manageable due to reserves and diversified suppliers, but a long conflict could widen the current account deficit, fuel inflation, and strain the economy.
• Safety of the Indian Diaspora: West Asia hosts nearly 9 million Indian expatriates who contribute significantly to inward remittances.
  • The safety of the diaspora is the primary concern. The government may need to initiate large-scale evacuation operations (akin to Operation Rahat or Operation Ajay) if the situation deteriorates further.
• Diplomatic Tightrope: India shares a deep strategic partnership with the US and Israel, while also maintaining crucial historical, energy, and connectivity ties with Iran.
  • Taking a partisan stance is detrimental to India's interests. The challenge lies in advocating for peace and condemning civilian casualties without alienating any strategic partner.
• Disruption of Connectivity Corridors: The militarization of the Gulf severely derails India's strategic connectivity initiatives. Operations at the Chabahar Port (Iran) are jeopardized, and the ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) faces existential viability threats due to the destruction of Arabian Peninsula port infrastructure.

What Measures can India take to Mitigate the Impact of the US and Israel-Iran Conflict?

• Activation of Strategic Buffers: The government must prepare to utilize the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to insulate the domestic market from immediate price shocks, while aggressively exploring alternative LPG/LNG procurement from non-Gulf nations like the US or Australia.
• Evacuation Contingency Readiness: Prepare evacuation Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs)  with the Ministry of Civil Aviation and the Indian Navy to ensure safe corridors for evacuating the Indian diaspora.
  • Keep the Indian Air Force and Air India on standby for large-scale airlifts, similar to Operation Ganga (Ukraine).
  • Enhance Indian Navy presence in the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman, expanding missions like Operation Sankalp to protect Indian merchant vessels near conflict zones.
• Strategic Autonomy in Diplomacy: India must navigate a diplomatic tightrope. It cannot afford to alienate Washington or Tel Aviv, yet it must heavily back-channel with Tehran and Muscat (Oman) to secure exceptions for Indian vessels and advocate for the de-militarization of commercial shipping lanes.
• Subsidies and Tax Interventions: To prevent the global "war premium" from passing directly to the common citizen, the central and state governments may need to absorb the shock by reducing excise duties and Value Added Tax (VAT) on petrol and diesel.
• Advocating for De-escalation at the UN: India must consistently voice its stance that "this is not an era of war." 
  • While condemning civilian casualties, India should avoid taking a zero-sum, partisan stance that could alienate either the US-Israel bloc or Iran, focusing entirely on a return to dialogue and the restoration of global supply chains.

Conclusion

The 2026 West Asian escalation exposes India’s vulnerability in energy security and diaspora safety. By maintaining its strategic autonomy and acting as a stabilising, non-partisan voice for peace — embodying the role of a Vishwa Bandhu (global friend) — India can safeguard its interests while reinforcing that this is not an era of war.